bs.......they could also miss it..

bad snap, blocked kick, etc, etc..just look at wat happened to cundif last week...and romo a few years ago..not to mention the giants facing the niners in the playoffs a few years ago when fassel was the coach.

the pats had <1:00 w/ the ball and they werent able to throw downfield all game..+ they didn't score for the last 25 minutes previous.

Youre wrong here bro. 1000%. They had an article on this on ESPN.com. The chances of them winning were 99% if he goes down. The chances of them winning after the TD were in the 75% range with Brady. Those receivers catch the ball its like 50% in Giants territory with some time. Not only that, if the patriots let them sciore with 2 minutes left, the chances were around 50/50. The article broke it down very specifically.


Bottom line it was at least 20 times better to let them score. The worst math you could do had the Giants winning 98% of the time from the 2 yard line.

of course they could miss it, every time you get a td they could also miss the extra point, tynes is a career 98.1% for PATs, and 131/131 his past 3 years, no way brady is 2% or less to drive the field for a td, branch was wide open on first down the first play of that drive and should have made the catch, if he doesn't drop it they were at least at midfield and maybe more with 40-50 seconds left and probably still the timeout

i dunno dude.

a statistical analysis. the problem w/ these models is that you can't include all the variables which you can't put a number on.

these same statheads are also pimping for arod type hitters to hit leadoff in baseball. and providing concrete statistical analysis as to why.

i'll leave it at that.

i will say if they do take a knee, and providing they make the FG, NE would have to travel 40-45yrds less to win the game with 14/15 seconds w/ zero timeouts..as opposed to ..traveling 80yrds w/ 1 timeout. w/ 57 seconds

providing they get it at the 20..all they need is 35-40yrds for a game winning FG attempt

this is obv where the model is coming from...time vs yards vs chance of making a long FG

it was already determined that

a-NE hasn't scored in the last 25 minutes
b-NE hasn't thrown the ball downfield all game

(and both of these things is not likely figured in the model as well)

+ you never can live it down passing up a TD if by chance something happens to the FG attempt..

this is no ordinary FG...no ordinary circumstance...and no formula can be applied to a kickers psyche....and i provided cases of messed up FG's to boot.

actually, there is quite a body of statistical evidence to help with the decision to take a knee or take the TD....

every NFL game, and every major college game for over the past 50 years has a play by play log made for it...and those logs provide data for figuring the probabilty of hitting the field goal, the Patriots getting a winning TD or field goal given time left in the game...

credit the Pats coaching staff for having foreseen this situation and having a plan to give them the best chance to win

no kidding ..i didn't say they don't have any data to formulate....i just said they didn't have all the variables when formulating it...

and lets not give the pats a reach around for recognizing the benefits of letting the giants score,...they should've recognized it sooner..they were 2 plays late. they fucked up big time here.

wow you faggots are awful tim steer clear of these derelicts

lol you're still trying to argue your opinion against statistical facts?

let me break it down to you in laymans terms, you conehead.

it's a statistical fact that you:

a- you will never know more about sports then me.
b- are a faggot.
c- have a 15yr old boy shaking his ass as ur sig file.

don't ignore these facts.

You're wrong Padle, he 100% should have went down there and a big reason is that the Pats would have had to use their last timeout and were going to let him walk in on third down. In this scenario, 5 more second come off the clock and the Pats don't have anymore timeouts. Side note, Nicks going out of bounds the play before was also retarded, Giants tried everything they could to fuck up the end of that game. If Nicks stays in bounds the Pats never get the ball back.

its a sport. anything can happen at any given moment.

batting 0/3 again, solid