So im in a ats pick em pool. Every week u pick 1cfb 1nfl and 1 bonus. When college ended it went to 2 nfl only. So its the final week, and it pays top 3, and you can take 1 week off and I havent used mine.

Standings are
1. PlayerA 29-13
2. Me 28-15
3. playerB 24-13
4. playerC 28-16

No one else can pass me. Payout is like 50/40/10

So whats the most +ev strategy do I sit out and play for 2nd or play and go for 1st and take a bigger risk at 3rd or worse? Its not life changing money, but I want to win the most $ obv

Is this based on win percentage? Or total wins? Or total losses? How do you do a total rank?

win %

Here is the short answer: you fucked something up here. The total games you are reporting are 42, 43, 37, & 44. How are they not the same? No way one is at 37 and one at 44 with the terms you outlined. Did you not list pushes maybe?

If your numbers are right somehow, the answer is that it's a coin flip. For you to catch 1st you need to go 2-0 and him go 0-2. If you are just flipping a coin, the odds of both happening together are a mere1/16 (1/4 twice). Mathematically it ain't happening.

Now to 3rd. It's a proverbial dead heat. If you both go 2-0 it pushes. 1-1 each and you win. 0-2 each and you win. If either player does better they win. Sitting out would require he goes 2-0 to pass you (1/4). If you play you open the window if you lose one and even best case scenario you can force a tie. Essentially you can become the house on a two team parlay. Stand pat and make him hit it.

Pushes arent counted and the numbers can be different since during the season you could pick a bonus game but were only required to pick 2. Plus some people have taken their week off and some havent.

I should have stated the 1 bonus was optional