First, can someone please list all of the US-friendly online books that support +EV teaser bets? I am referring to those that give +180 for 3-team 6-pointers, and/or +100 for 2-team 6-pointers.

Also, please list whether these books support high or middle limit bets. Some have the proper odds but stick you at $100 max, which is useless unless you are near broke.

This is my understanding of the betting strategy of NFL teasers:

- You look for favorites of -8.5 to -7.5, and dogs from +1.5 to +2.5.

- It is better to tease the home team than the road team.

- You are looking for a game with lower totals, as this makes the 6 points you're gaining more meaningful.

- It is good to avoid teasing really awful teams that are prone to getting blown out. It is best to tease teams that often finish with fairly close scores.

Any other advice here?

Bodog still gives 3 team teases at +180. No idea of anyplace that still gives 2 teamers at even money.

I believe 5dimes does.

Yea, I think 5Dimes or BetUS would be able to accommodate those Druff - both are also known for having higher betting limits too.

I'll answer this prolly tomorrow in more depth, but 5dimes even money teasers are not really even money. They shade their lines a half point away from the wong teasers, so you're really playing 5.5pt teasers.

Nobody has even money two teamers, but I'm putting together a list of DD recommended books (with aff links to help us out obv) that I'll post here in the next few days.

At this point, there are only 3 teasable games for Week 1:

Pitt +2.5
Houston +2.5
Baltimore +2.5

Pitt is at home and the total is low (37), so that's a good one.

Baltimore is on the road (not as good, especially being a dog), but the total is low (36).

Houston is at home, but total (47) is shitty. So that one looks a bit marginal. However, many books have them at +2, so I may have gotten an extra 1/2 point.

Bet 1k to win 1800.

First, can someone please list all of the US-friendly online books that support +EV teaser bets? I am referring to those that give +180 for 3-team 6-pointers, and/or +100 for 2-team 6-pointers.

I'm putting together a list and some affiliate bonus codes for this, which I should have ready by Sunday. DO NOT bet teasers at 5dimes though, they shade their lines away from the wongs, so you're getting even money but you're getting 5.5pt teasers that are disguised as 6. There are no more +100 2 teamers left, sorry the books have been raped enough on those that they no longer exist.

Also, please list whether these books support high or middle limit bets. Some have the proper odds but stick you at $100 max, which is useless unless you are near broke.

Here's the thing, if you want to bet 5k teasers even the ones that allow the limits will turn off your teaser options immediately after they see you fire. Books are a lot smarter about wongs, they don't just let you come in firing and take it like a bitch. The much better way to get 5k down is to do 5 books at 1k each. Spreading your winning around is the only way to stay in the teaser business more than a few weeks.


- You look for favorites of -8.5 to -7.5, and dogs from +1.5 to +2.5.

Both in theory should be +ev, but dogs both home and away for the last 25 years have shown a significantly better record.

Since 1985:
WIN_PCT COUNT TYPE
-----------------------------
75.37 268 HOME DOG
74.85 336 AWAY DOG
72.34 291 HOME FAVORITE
66.67 93 AWAY FAVORITE

Try NOT to use more than one favorite in a 3 team combination, and personally after finding this data I NEVER use an away favorite unless the total is extremely low (35 or less).



- It is better to tease the home team than the road team.

See above, home teams are ok, but only use away dogs. You need to win about 71.5% to break even at -110 2 teamers and about 70% to break even at 3 team +180s. Obviously now you can see why historically away favs are -ev even in the wong ranges.

- You are looking for a game with lower totals, as this makes the 6 points you're gaining more meaningful.

Yes, be aware of games with totals 45+. You can use them if they're a part of a sunday or monday night game, since you can then hedge your bet by betting the other side with the spread to protect your risk on the teasers if need be. The Colts are a perfect example of this. They constantly play night games and always have a high total. At least a dozen times over the last 7 years I've had enormous amounts of live teasers -2 with them and the other team bet back for the entire exposure at +8. Those games are fun for sure when you can't lose but can middle for the moneytruck.



- It is good to avoid teasing really awful teams that are prone to getting blown out. It is best to tease teams that often finish with fairly close scores.

Nah, it's just bad luck when you have a deadbeat team that can lose 27-3.

Good info there, reggiman, and I learned some new things.

The only area I disagree with you is regarding the really awful teams with the tendency to get blown out.

Each team has its variance factor. You want to tease teams that are most likely to stay close to the predicted line. The line is essentially a weighted average of all possible outcomes, but the line doesn't tell the story of variance. Two teams may both be at +2.5 with the same game total, but one may have a higher likelihood to deviate big time from that line.

I have found that the really awful teams tend to have that problem most often. I suppose that average teams with streakiness issues can also suffer from the same.

Anyway, I made a decision about 2 seasons ago to completely stay away from awful teams when teasing, unless I'm getting the other side.

Druff,

Does it come up very often that a so called awful team falls in to the teaser range? For example, if the Rams pop up as a +1.5 in a home game, that is going to require a pretty lousy opponent.

It seems like they would have to be playing another "awful" team or a close to awful team to even show up in the Wong teaser range.

But then, if you have 2 terrible teams they are likely to be the lower total type games you are telling us give good value.

I am inclined to agree with Reggiman at this point.

Please call an example out of a Wong setup you are not interested in if you see one.

Peace,

Hozer11

druff do sports books in vegas pay better odds on the 3 team teasers ?

This is a common mistake in thinking. You have to look at awful as relative to the opponent, not awful as a stand alone. The lines account for this already, there is no variance here (at least none that can be accounted for, ever). You are never going to have enough data from one season to determine which teams are "awful" (by awful I mean your definition of prone to getting blown out more) and which teams are streaky. Basing it on one or two blowouts in which the line falls into this range is silly. Using this thought process is causing you to pass up potential +ev situations.

and the biggest problem with leaving a team off that you feel could get blown out is that you lose the unique combinations with the other two legs that clearly give you ev... even if you don't agree with me on the "problem" team.

Like I've said before if you don't trust a team just bet back the other side, especially if they play later than the other teams in the teaser. Let's be realistic here though... you aren't putting down 50k/week on these, you can take the variance over a few k bet at Bodog. Especially at Bodog of all places, where you often times get an extra half point on the dog anyway.

You only get 16 days of these a year, don't pass up the small amount of trials you get to have a 10-15% edge.

No, most vegas books give you -110 2 teamers and +160 3 teamers.

This week, check your book to see if you can get Ravens +1.5, Rams +1.5, Dolphins +1.5 for a teaser combo.

Good value on this one. Unfortunately many books have moved the Rams and Dolphins to +1, making them useless.

Here are my teasers for the week:

Baltimore +8
St. Louis +8/+7.5 (depends where I placed the bet)
SD -2.5
$1000 bet to win $1800

Miami +7.5
Baltimore +7.5
St. Louis +7.5
$500 bet to win $900

GL to me

I think Baltimore could be a problem - you should have gone with Pitt +5.5

I'm betting heavy on

Baltimore +2.5 to +8.5
St. Louis +2 to +8

Both in games with low totals (34 and 40.5) - a nice betting situation.

There are several week 8 games that make for some good wong teasers...I think so anyway.

I am betting

Dolphins +2.5
Chiefs -7.5
Seahawks +1.5

200 to win 380

I am also betting

Dolphins/Chiefs
Dolphins/Seahawks
Chiefs/Seahawks

for 200 to win 200 on each

One other game that could be a game to bet is Washington +2.5, but it looks like it could be headed to +3 and it isn't even available to bet at my book yet anyway.

200 to win 380, thakilla? What book is that? How are you getting +190? (PM me if you don't want to say in public.)

My book has the Seahawks at +3 right now, as well as Washington +3. They are just about to move to +2.5, and most other books have them at +2.5

So I went for:

KC -1.5
Sea +9
Wash +9
after the 6 point teaser

Sorry, typo. 200 to win 360. It is the same book you asked me about last year. It is just through a friend and he only gives me those lines, because I don't bet very high. You also said you didn't want to deal with paying and collecting through a person instead of a corporation...I don't blame you.